Beyond point forecasting: evaluation of alternative prediction intervals for tourist arrivals

This paper evaluates the performance of prediction intervals generated from alternative time series models, in the context of tourism forecasting. The forecasting methods considered include the autoregressive (AR) model, the AR model using the bias-corrected bootstrap, seasonal ARIMA models, innovations state-space models for exponential smoothing, and Harvey's structural time series models. We use thirteen monthly time series for the number of tourist arrivals to Hong Kong and to Australia. The mean coverage rate and length of alternative prediction intervals are evaluated in an empirical setting. It is found that the prediction intervals from all models show satisfactory performance, except for those from the autoregressive model. In particular, those based on the bias-corrected bootstrap in general perform best, providing tight intervals with accurate coverage rates, especially when the forecast horizon is long.Automatic forecasting, Bootstrapping, Interval forecasting

An HMM-based Comparative Genomic Framework for Detecting Introgression in Eukaryotes

One outcome of interspecific hybridization and subsequent effects of evolutionary forces is introgression, which is the integration of genetic material from one species into the genome of an individual in another species. The evolution of several groups of eukaryotic species has involved hybridization, and cases of adaptation through introgression have been already established. In this work, we report on a new comparative genomic framework for detecting introgression in genomes, called PhyloNet-HMM, which combines phylogenetic networks, that capture reticulate evolutionary relationships among genomes, with hidden Markov models (HMMs), that capture dependencies within genomes. A novel aspect of our work is that it also accounts for incomplete lineage sorting and dependence across loci. Application of our model to variation data from chromosome 7 in the mouse (Mus musculus domesticus) genome detects a recently reported adaptive introgression event involving the rodent poison resistance gene Vkorc1, in addition to other newly detected introgression regions. Based on our analysis, it is estimated that about 12% of all sites withinchromosome 7 are of introgressive origin (these cover about 18 Mbp of chromosome 7, and over 300 genes). Further, our model detects no introgression in two negative control data sets. Our work provides a powerful framework for systematic analysis of introgression while simultaneously accounting for dependence across sites, point mutations, recombination, and ancestral polymorphism

Receiver Function and Gravity Constraints on Crustal Structure and Vertical Movements of the Upper Mississippi Embayment and Ozark Uplift

The Upper Mississippi Embayment (UME), where the seismically active New Madrid Seismic Zone resides, experienced two phases of subsidence commencing in the Late Precambrian and Cretaceous, respectively. To provide new constraints on models proposed for the mechanisms responsible for the subsidence, we computed and stacked P-to-S receiver functions recorded by 49 USArray and other seismic stations located in the UME and the adjacent Ozark Uplift and modeled Bouguer gravity anomaly data. The inferred thickness, density, and Vp/Vs of the upper and lower crustal layers suggest that the UME is characterized by a mafic and high-density upper crustal layer of ~30 km thickness, which is underlain by a higher-density lower crustal layer of up to ~15 km. Those measurements, in the background of previously published geological observations on the subsidence and uplift history of the UME, are in agreement with the model that the Cretaceous subsidence, which was suggested to be preceded by an approximately 2 km uplift, was the consequence of the passage of a previously proposed thermal plume. The thermoelastic effects of the plume would have induced wide-spread intrusion of mafic mantle material into the weak UME crust fractured by Precambrian rifting and increased its density, resulting in renewed subsidence after the thermal source was removed. In contrast, the Ozark Uplift has crustal density, thickness, and Vp/Vs measurements that are comparable to those observed on cratonic areas, suggesting an overall normal crust without significant modification by the proposed plume, probably owing to the relatively strong and thick lithosphere

A taxonomy and business analysis for mobile web applications

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program, 2009.Includes bibliographical references (p. 113-115).Mobile web applications refer to web applications on mobile devices, aimed at personalizing, integrating, and discovering mobile contents in user contexts. This thesis presents a comprehensive study of mobile web applications by proposing a new taxonomy for mobile web applications, and conducting a business analysis in the field of mobile web applications. The thesis reviews the current surrounding environment for mobile web applications, namely, web 2.0 and 3.0, wireless communication technology, and Smartphone platform. The recent entry and success of Apple's iPhone greatly enhanced the public awareness of the Smartphone technology. Google's release of open-source Android platform and T-Mobile's deployment of Android-powered "Dream" Smartphone not only intensify the competition among suppliers, but also provide an open-source foundation for mobile web applications. This thesis introduces a new mobile web application taxonomy to systematically study the values and the groupings of the mobile web applications. By introducing features and categories, the taxonomy provides a framework so the related companies and businesses can be comparatively analyzed and summarized. Selected case companies are studied in the light of the taxonomy. The thesis discusses the key issues of mobile web aggregation, namely, mobile application development platform, context modeling, mobile user interface, mobile application logic, and mobile web aggregation strategy.(cont.) "System Thinking" is applied to the management of mobile web application business. The market ecosystem, the value proposition, and the revenue model for mobile web application are described. A system dynamic model is constructed to understand the dynamic among the key factors in the mobile web business. Experimental results are reported in the thesis.by Kevin Hao Liu.S.M

Crustal Structure and Evolution beneath the Colorado Plateau and the Southern Basin and Range Province: Results from Receiver Function and Gravity Studies

Over the past several decades, contrasting models have been proposed for the physical and chemical processes responsible for the uplift and long-term stability of the Colorado Plateau (CP) and crustal thinning beneath the Basin and Range Province (BRP) in the southwestern United States. Here we provide new constraints on the models by modeling gravity anomalies and by systematically analyzing over 15,500 P-to-S receiver functions recorded at 72 USArray and other broadband seismic stations on the southwestern CP and the southern BRP. Our results reveal that the BRP is characterized by a thin crust (28.2 ± 0.5 km), a mean Vp/Vs of 1.761 ± 0.014 and a mean amplitude (R) of P-to-S converted wave (relative to that of the direct P wave) of 0.181 ± 0.014 that are similar to a typical continental crust, consistent with the model that the thin crust was the consequence of lithospheric stretching during the Cenozoic. The CP is characterized by the thickest crust (42.3 ± 0.8 km), largest Vp/Vs (1.825 ± 0.009) and smallest R (0.105 ± 0.007) values in the study area. In addition, many stations on the CP exhibit a clear arrival before the P-to-S converted phase from the Moho, corresponding to a lower crustal layer of about 12 km thick with a mafic composition. We hypothesize that the lower crustal layer, which has an anomalously large density as revealed by gravity modeling and high velocities in seismic refraction lines, contributed to the long-term stability and preuplift low elevation of the Colorado Plateau

Connectivity of the bay scallop (Argopecten irradians) in Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts, U.S.A.

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2015. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of John Wiley & Sons for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Fisheries Oceanography 24 (2015): 364-382, doi:10.1111/fog.12114.The harvest of bay scallops (Argopecten irradians) from Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts, USA undergoes large interannual fluctuations, varying by more than an order of magnitude in successive years. To investigate the extent to which these fluctuations may be due to yearly variations in the transport of scallop larvae from spawning areas to suitable juvenile habitat (settlement zones), a high-resolution hydrodynamic model was used to drive an individual-based model of scallop larval transport. Model results revealed that scallop spawning in Buzzards Bay occurs during a time when nearshore bay currents were principally directed up-bay in response to a persistent southwesterly sea breeze. This nearshore flow results in substantial transport of larvae from lower-bay spawning areas to settlement zones further up-bay. Averaged over the entire bay, the spawning-to-settlement zone connectivity exhibits little interannual variation. However, connectivities between individual spawning and settlement zones vary by up to an order of magnitude. The model results identified spawning areas that have the greatest probability of transporting larvae to juvenile habitat. Because managers may aim to increase scallop populations either locally or broadly, the high-connectivity spawning areas were divided into: 1) high larval retention and relatively little larval transport to adjoining settlement areas, 2) both significant larval retention and transport to more distant settlement areas, and 3) little larval retention but significant transport to distant settlement areas.This project was supported by the Woods Hole Sea Grant through award NA10OAR4170083. All modeling computations were made on the University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth’s (UMD’s) GPGPU cluster, which was acquired with support from NSF award CNS-0959382 and AFOSR DURIP award FA9550-10-1-0354.2016-07-1

Highly Enhanced Concentration and Stability of Reactive Ce^3+ on Doped CeO_2 Surface Revealed In Operando

Trivalent cerium ions in CeO_2 are the key active species in a wide range of catalytic and electro-catalytic reactions. We employed ambient pressure X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy and electrochemical impedance spectroscopy to quantify simultaneously the concentration of the reactive Ce^3+ species on the surface and in the bulk of Sm-doped CeO_2(100) in hundreds of millitorr of H2–H2O gas mixtures. Under relatively oxidizing conditions, when the bulk cerium is almost entirely in the 4+ oxidation state, the surface concentration of the reduced Ce^3+ species can be over 180 times the bulk concentration. Furthermore, in stark contrast to the bulk, the surface’s 3+ oxidation state is also highly stable, with concentration almost independent of temperature and oxygen partial pressure. Our thermodynamic measurements reveal that the difference between the bulk and surface partial molar entropies plays a key role in this stabilization. The high concentration and stability of reactive surface Ce^3+ over wide ranges of temperature and oxygen partial pressure may be responsible for the high activity of doped ceria in many pollution-control and energy-conversion reactions, under conditions at which Ce^3+ is not abundant in the bulk

Dynamical Belyi maps

We study the dynamical properties of a large class of rational maps with exactly three ramification points. By constructing families of such maps, we obtain infinitely many conservative maps of degree $d$; this answers a question of Silverman. Rather precise results on the reduction of these maps yield strong information on the rational dynamics.Comment: 21 page